
Originally Posted by
SkeletalFrog
That's not how science works. You can't prove a negative - "there are no white ravens" - except under extremely specific and limited circumstances.
Yes, you have raised potential issues, but that's all they are, potential. Acting as if they're definitive is highly premature. Yes, X or Y or Z could have happened, but without actual data supporting those claims, they're just hypotheses, and science is built on the corpses of dead hypotheses.
Similarly, stating that they are, or could be, also proves nothing.
Just because there are two possibilities does not mean those two possibilities are equally likely. Given that your hypothesis would require the acquisition of ornata from a single location (which may or may not even exist anymore, thanks to deforestation), breeding it, concealing the offspring's nature, *and* offspring that look nothing like one of the parents, while the alternative simply requires that the breeder happened upon a rare genetic mutation (which happens all the time), it's much more likely that "samurai" pacs are simply a mutation.
Consider Bigfoot. What's more likely, that an unknown anthropoid evolved in or migrated to the US leaving no fossil record or evidence for several hundred thousand years in spite of massively growing human populations, or that every so often someone in a gorilla suit plays a hoax?
Given Occam's razor, Bayseian priors, and general logic, the simpler explanations should be preferred until clear evidence of alternatives is found.
While the existence of a 2n ornata population seems odd, there are other possibilities, such as that the 2n specimens were mis-identified cranwelli (especially likely if they were tadpoles) or that something went wrong with the karyotyping. Plus, there's the issue of which the type specimen is - if the type specimen is 8n, then the 8n individuals retain the ornata name, and the 2n population gets a new name.
Remember "species" are only real in a vague and temporary sense - it's an artificial box we construct for human convenience. It's more real than any other taxonomic level, yes, but life is considerabl more complex than the ICZN code can cope with, or ever will.
Not actually. A hypothesis is an educated guess, an idea based on current knowledge. A theory is a hypothesis that has been tested, passed, and now has data supporting it.
That's the key, data.